توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s 10 August reading is typically a hot summer outcome rather than an extreme one, and the market is really asking where the day’s peak sits against the usual August range. Long-run climate pages put Beijing’s August average high around 30–31°C, with typical lows near 21–22°C, while one August 10 historical guide gives a representative daytime high of 33.7°C for that date, suggesting the mid-30s are possible but not routine.[1][7][18]

That makes the current 0% yes pricing on the highest bracket look like a strong underweight relative to climatology, especially with recent August 10 histories showing highs mostly in the low 30s and only occasional pushes to the mid-30s.[9][18] Comparable readings from earlier August dates also cluster around 31–35°C rather than anything materially higher, so a settle in the top-end band would need an unusually strong warm-up and limited cloud or rain suppression.[6][9]

For traders, the key catalyst is the live daily progression at Beijing Capital International Airport Station on Weather Underground, because the market resolves off the *Daily Observations* table rather than the summary high/low box.[3] The early-morning situation is already a useful starting point: Wunderground showed 77°F at midnight with fair conditions, while Time and Date’s forecast for Beijing points to a sunny 91/65°F day with no rain chance, which supports further warming if that forecast holds through the afternoon.[3][13] The main dependency is whether convection, haze, or a late cloud/rain band caps the afternoon maximum below the higher brackets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.