توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s airport temperature on 4 August is likely to be set by the usual late-summer mix of heat, humidity and convective rain, with several forecasts clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than extreme heat. Current public forecasts for Beijing point to highs around 31–36°C, but with rain chances high enough to cap the peak if cloud cover and showers arrive during the warmest part of the day.[1][2][3][4]

That makes the crowd-implied 0% for **YES** hard to reconcile with the climatology and available model guidance. August in Beijing is typically hot and rainy, with average highs around 30–32°C and frequent showers or thunderstorms; comparable daily forecasts for early August often show highs in the 31–34°C range, which is consistent with a settlement band well above the colder outcomes.[2][3][4][11][17][19]

Traders should watch for any update to the day-ahead and intraday forecast around the capital airport, because the winning band depends on the single highest reading, not the average temperature. The main swing factors are shower timing, cloud cover and whether heating breaks through before afternoon precipitation; if rain holds off longer, the top reading can edge up, while earlier convection can leave the day short of the upper bands.[1][3][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.