توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s **highest temperature** on 8 August will be set by the reading at Beijing Capital International Airport in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the summary “Day High & Low” figure. Early on the day, the airport was already reporting **82°F at 10:30 UTC** and **86°F by 12:00 pm local time** on the Time and Date history page, which points to a warm afternoon rather than a cool one[4][1].

The market’s 0% YES pricing sits well below Beijing’s August norm. Multiple long-run guides put average August highs around **30–31°C** and lows near **21–23°C**, while one WeatherSpark/airport-style history snapshot shows Beijing at **82°F** in the latest report and Time and Date’s history already had a **99°F** high earlier in the week, indicating the city can move sharply when heat builds[3][6][12][14][4]. On that framing, the key question is not whether it gets hot, but whether the airport observation table pushes through the temperature bands that would change the resolution bucket.

Traders should watch for the **last few hourly observations** before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, because a midday-to-afternoon peak is typical on warm Beijing summer days and the terminal reading can still rise materially after morning values[1][16]. Any cloud build-up, rain, or wind shift at the airport will matter more than citywide averages, because the market resolves strictly to the airport station’s recorded maximum in the Daily Observations table[16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.