توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. July represents the peak of Beijing's summer season, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the market captures the full calendar day's temperature range at the measurement station.

Beijing's July temperatures have shown consistent clustering around 32–35°C over the past two decades, with extremes occasionally reaching 37–40°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be displayed or treating this as a placeholder market. Historical data from Wunderground shows that 28 July specifically has recorded highs between 31°C and 36°C in recent years, establishing a narrow band for typical conditions. Anomalous heat events—those pushing above 38°C—occur roughly once per decade in Beijing during summer months.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature extremes. The specific resolution source (Wunderground's historical data for ZBAA station) is publicly accessible and updates daily, eliminating ambiguity around measurement methodology. Any significant atmospheric patterns—such as Tibetan high-pressure systems or tropical moisture incursions—would be flagged in meteorological bulletins 5–7 days before the settlement date. The airport station's urban location means readings may run 1–2°C higher than surrounding rural areas, a consistent bias worth factoring when comparing to broader regional forecasts.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.