توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s heat has a strong late-July bias, and the market is settled on the **single highest reading** at Beijing Capital International Airport Station for 31 July, not the daytime average. That matters because the airport can still post a materially higher peak than the citywide forecast suggests, especially if sunshine breaks through after a humid start or if a hot air mass lingers into the afternoon. Long-run July data show Beijing’s average high is around the low 30s Celsius, but extremes are much higher: one source puts the 2016–2025 July record at 41.6°C, and another notes a monthly peak of 40°C in 2023.[2][5][19]

A **0% YES** price implies the market is expecting the day’s maximum to land outside the target temperature band, so traders should compare that pricing against the local forecast rather than the seasonal average. The latest public city forecast cited Beijing at 25°C/31°C with thunderstorms on 30 July, which points to a capped daily high rather than an extreme heat spike.[9] Historical late-July guides also place 31 July’s typical high at about 31°C and list an extreme of 37°C for that date, which is useful context for how often Beijing reaches the upper buckets used in these markets.[15]

The main catalysts are the afternoon forecast updates, thunderstorm timing, and any shift in cloud cover or rain that suppresses the airport maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Beijing’s July climate is rain-prone, so a forecast change from storms to partial clearing can matter more than a small revision in the morning temperature range. Traders should also watch for any airport-specific observations on Wunderground, since the contract resolves to that station rather than a citywide mean.[9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.