توقع: Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

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Market context

Busan’s afternoon maximum will be set by how much heat the city can carry through the early August peak before sea breeze and cloud cover trim the top end. The market is currently pricing in a very hot outcome, with the crowd clustered around **38–40°C**, while the leading bucket is **39°C** at 39% and **38°C** close behind, which is consistent with traders leaning on the recent exceptional heat across south-eastern Korea and the fact that Busan’s latest extremes have already pushed into record territory. The city’s August climate is normally warm and humid rather than torrid, but that makes today’s pricing notable: the market is implicitly treating this as an outlier day rather than a typical summer afternoon.[1][5][17]

The key comparator is Busan’s recent temperature run, especially the 38.8°C reading on 29 July, reported as the city’s hottest temperature since records began in 1904, which raises the ceiling for what traders think is plausible again so soon afterwards.[17] Broader South Korean coverage has also pointed to continued extreme-heat conditions, with one local forecast placing Busan around 34°C on 1 August even as much of the country faces highs well above seasonal norms.[9] That makes the current 0% YES pricing understandable only if the market’s YES threshold is set above the realised maximum bucket rather than the raw headline temperature; the distribution is already signalling that anything below the upper 30s would be an upset relative to current positioning.[1][2][5]

For traders, the live catalysts are straightforward: the day’s peak timing, any afternoon clouding or showers, and the strength of the onshore breeze at Gimhae Airport, because those are the main factors that can cap the maximum after late-morning heating. The resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Gimhae Intl Airport Station, and the market will stay open to revisions until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[1] That means the important watchpoint is not just the highest observed temperature, but whether any late update revises the final daily maximum before the next day’s data lock-in.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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