توقع: Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's August climate presents consistent thermal conditions that shape expectations for the highest temperature on 15 August 2026. The city experiences peak summer heat during mid-August, with daily maxima typically ranging between 28–32°C at Gimhae International Airport Station, the official measurement point for this market. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that August 15 has recorded temperatures as high as 34.5°C (2018) and as low as 27.2°C (2014), reflecting the variability introduced by monsoon patterns and occasional tropical systems that can suppress temperatures during this period.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range the market intends to resolve. Without visibility on the exact temperature thresholds defined for each resolution bracket, positioning becomes difficult; a market offering ranges such as "under 28°C," "28–30°C," "30–32°C," and "over 32°C" would distribute probability differently than one with wider or narrower bands. Gimhae Airport's inland location, roughly 20 kilometres from Busan's coast, typically records higher maxima than seaside stations owing to reduced maritime cooling influence.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts released in July 2026, which will clarify whether an El Niño or La Niña pattern is developing and whether the East Asian summer monsoon is expected to intensify. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August could substantially depress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the Korean Peninsula would drive readings towards the upper end of the historical range.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.