توقع: Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Gimhae International Airport in Busan will record its highest temperature on 28 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which range will validate.

Busan's July temperatures typically peak between 28°C and 32°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 34°C in recent summers. The city experienced a maximum of 34.6°C on 1 August 2018 and 34.2°C on 23 July 2019, establishing precedent for high-end outcomes. Historical data from Gimhae station shows July averages around 28–29°C, but the tail risk of heat waves—particularly during late July when monsoon patterns break down—remains material. Traders should reference the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña conditions active in mid-2026, as these drive regional temperature variance.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 July 2026, meaning real-time weather conditions in Busan during that calendar day will determine the outcome. Traders should monitor Wunderground's historical archive directly in the days following 28 July to confirm which temperature band captured the station's peak reading. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may lack liquidity or clarity on available temperature ranges; clarifying the specific bands offered would help traders calibrate positions against Busan's established seasonal norms.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.