توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s afternoon peak on 1 August is usually a summer heat test rather than an extreme-event setup. Long-run climate guides put the day’s typical high around 31–33°C, with August broadly the hottest month, but they also show a fairly wide spread and frequent rain, which can hold the realised maximum below seasonal norms.[1][4][13][15] For context, one weather-history guide lists 1 August average highs near 33.8°C, while other climate summaries point to a more moderate August maximum around 30–31°C, so the market’s current 0% yes price implies a very low bar relative to ordinary seasonal expectations.[3][15]

What matters now is whether Chengdu gets a sustained clear-sky heating window before cloud, showers or onshore moisture build in. Market commentary has already pointed to persistent rain and cloud cover in Sichuan suppressing recent highs near or below 28°C, and that is the main near-term catalyst for any move higher if the pattern breaks.[2] Traders should watch the Wunderground station page through the afternoon UTC window for the day’s peak, alongside any short-term model shifts or local forecast updates that indicate a drier, sunnier spell. If the airport station stays in the high 20s Celsius, the current no-side pricing remains consistent with recent conditions; a run into the low-to-mid 30s would be the cleanest path to a rethink.[2][13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.