توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature on 3 August will be set by the airport station reading, so the key question is whether the day reaches the sort of mid-30s heat that is normal in August rather than an outlier spike. Seasonal guides put Chengdu’s August highs around 30–34°C, with humid, rain-prone conditions but frequent short-lived showers rather than all-day washouts.[1][3][10][16] Forecasts available for 3 August have already pointed to a hot day, with several outlooks showing around 33°C and sunny or mostly sunny conditions.[2][4][5][13]

For context, Chengdu’s August temperatures commonly sit in the low 30s, and some guides note that highs can still push beyond 35°C on hotter days, especially in and around the city.[1][3][10][14] That leaves the market’s 0% implied YES price looking tied to a very specific temperature band outcome rather than a broad weather regime. In practical terms, the settlement is likely to hinge on whether afternoon heating at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is capped by cloud or rain, or whether sunshine allows a clean run into the mid-30s, which is consistent with recent point forecasts.[2][15][17]

Traders should watch the airport-specific observations and any updated same-day forecast from the resolution source, because the market resolves to the highest recorded temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 3 August, not the city average.[17] The main catalysts are the timing of morning cloud cover, any afternoon thunderstorm risk, and whether the forecasted 33–35°C range is revised up or down as the day develops.[2][15][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.