توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s reading for 4 August is likely to be set by a hot, humid daytime build-up rather than a clean, dry heat spike. Short-range August forecasts for the city point to a high around **32°C** with patchy rain possible and a broadly similar low-to-mid 30s range across several services, which is consistent with Chengdu’s usual late-summer pattern of warmth, humidity and intermittent showers.[1][2][3][7]

That backdrop makes the current **0% YES** crowd view look aggressive if the market is looking for an extreme outcome, because the climatology for early August still clusters around the low 30s rather than the upper 30s. Historical August guides place Chengdu’s average high near **30°C**, with 4 August specifically around **32.1°C** in one long-run summary, while broader monthly datasets show daytime maxima commonly around **30–32°C** and only occasional pushes higher.[3][5][7][18] On that basis, the key question is less whether it gets warm and more whether cloud, rain, or an afternoon thunderstorm caps the station’s recorded maximum before it can run away. Forecast services also note that August is both hot and rainy, so timing matters: an early peak can settle the day at the upper 20s or low 30s, whereas a later sunny window can still lift the final high into the mid-30s.[3][13]

For traders, the main catalysts are any late changes to the local forecast, especially updates to rain timing, cloud cover, and thunderstorm coverage around the airport station. The market settles off the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on the day, so the decisive inputs are the hourly evolution of conditions and any revised station observations before the next day’s first datapoint appears.[16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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