توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s heat profile makes a sub-32°C outcome hard to justify if the day develops normally. August averages are clustered around a 30–31°C daytime high, while forecast services for 9 August point to highs of roughly 32–34°C, with humid, showery conditions rather than a cool regime.[1][2][4][5] Historical August data also show that while typical highs sit in the low 30s, the city can spike well above that on hotter days, with record August highs above 38°C in the longer local climate record.[2][20]

For this market, the key distinction is the *daily observations* table at Weather Underground station data, not the headline “Day High & Low” display, so late-afternoon or evening readings can matter if the station logs a fresh maximum before the settlement cut-off.[19] The current 0% YES implies the crowd is effectively pricing out any qualifying temperature range, but comparable August setups in Chengdu have still produced highs in the 31–34°C band even on rainy or cloudy days, which is the main historical anchor for how the market can settle.[3][6][10][15] Traders should watch whether thunderstorms or heavy cloud keep the airport station below the mid-30s, and whether any updated forecast or observation feed shows a late-day jump before 12:00 UTC, because Chengdu’s weather services are already calling for warm, humid conditions with rain chances rather than a pronounced cool-down.[4][10][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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