توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is set for a midsummer high, with several forecasts clustering the city around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and some models pushing the upper 30s. AccuWeather’s July outlook shows 29 July at 100°F, or about 38°C, while other services sit lower, around 32°C to 35°C, with humidity and scattered rain still part of the picture.[1][8][9][15] That spread matters for this market because the settlement source is the airport station’s *recorded* daily maximum, not a citywide average or feels-like figure.[13]

The 0% YES price reads as a pure long-shot against a hot-day base case, but not as a denial of heat entirely: July norms for Chengdu are around 30°C to 35°C in many guides, and some historical July references allow peaks near 38°C.[7][15][17] In other words, a very hot afternoon is plausible, yet the market still needs the airport station to print the specific target band on 29 July, which is a narrower condition than “warm” or even “very hot”.[13][15]

Traders should watch for any late forecast revisions on temperature, cloud cover and rain timing, because short-lived showers can cap the day’s maximum even when the broader forecast remains hot.[2][8][10] Current live and near-term feeds already show a mix of warmth, humidity and rain risk, with some sources pointing to light rain or overcast conditions and others keeping highs in the mid-30s Celsius.[2][8][9][10] The key dependency is the airport observation itself at Wunderground’s Chengdu Shuangliu page, since that is the source used for settlement.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 29?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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