توقع: Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is the settlement point here, and the market will be decided by the highest observed temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table for 6 August 2026, not the summary high/low figure. That distinction matters because the market is already priced at **0% YES**, which only makes sense if traders are treating a sub-range result as effectively locked in rather than expecting a late revision or a higher reading from a different source. Weather Underground’s Dallas history page is the operative reference, with revisions only counted until the first datapoint for the following day is published.[1]

Historical context points to a city that can still run very hot in early August, but the spread is usually narrow enough that one missing degree can move the result between adjacent brackets. Dallas’ all-time 6 August record is **109°F** in 2003, while the region’s weather service records show that 100°F-plus days are a regular feature of the local climate in summer.[2][8][11] For pricing, the key question is not whether Dallas can get hot, but whether the Love Field observation cycle prints high enough to clear the market’s chosen band before the day rolls over.[1][11]

The main catalysts are the official observation sequence, any late data correction on Weather Underground, and the exact first timestamp for 7 August, which closes the revision window.[1] Forecasts for the period around 6 August 2026 showed sunny, very warm conditions in Dallas, with one source listing an actual high near the mid-90s and another noting ongoing triple-digit heat across North Texas, so the market is more sensitive to the station-specific reading than to broader city forecasts.[3][9] Traders should also watch for any discrepancy between the station table and summary display, because the rules privilege the table if the two differ.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.