توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature on 14 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This single daily maximum forms the basis for settlement, with traders selecting from predefined temperature ranges. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final data publication from the Observatory may extend beyond the market close.

August in Hong Kong typically sees daily maxima between 31°C and 34°C, with the territory's climate shaped by the East Asian summer monsoon. Historical records show that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur roughly once per decade during August, whilst readings below 30°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either confidence in moderate conditions or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the temperature bands.

Traders should monitor the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any anomalies in regional atmospheric patterns as August 2026 approaches. The South China Sea typhoon season peaks during this month, and tropical systems can substantially alter local temperatures either through cloud cover and rainfall or through pre-storm heat surges. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and extended forecasts on its website; these will provide the most reliable indicators of expected conditions in the weeks preceding settlement.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.