توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory releasing verified readings. August is Hong Kong's peak summer month, with daily highs typically ranging between 31–33°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C.

Historical August data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows considerable year-to-year variation. The territory's absolute maximum temperature on record is 39.9°C, set in July 1963, but August extremes have reached 36–37°C on multiple occasions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range the market offers. Without access to the exact temperature brackets available for settlement, the current odds reflect either a consensus view or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts and monsoon patterns in early August 2026, as these systems significantly influence Hong Kong's weather trajectory. Urban heat island effects in densely built areas can elevate readings 1–2°C above rural stations. The Observatory's methodology remains consistent year-to-year, measuring at their King's Park station, so historical comparables provide reliable benchmarks. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as persistent high-pressure systems or delayed monsoon onset—would be the primary catalyst for extreme temperature outcomes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.