توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 20 August 2026, with settlement determined by the absolute daily maximum reading published in their official Daily Extract. This date falls within Hong Kong's late summer period, when the territory typically experiences hot and humid conditions ahead of the autumn transition.

August temperatures in Hong Kong have historically ranged between 28°C and 36°C for daily maxima, though extremes beyond this band occur irregularly. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available temperature brackets or expect moderate conditions on that specific date. Historical data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows August averages around 32–33°C, with readings above 35°C occurring in roughly one-third of years during this month. Comparison to recent August records provides calibration: the Observatory's climate database tracks daily maxima consistently, enabling traders to assess whether 20 August 2026 is likely to fall within typical late-summer parameters or deviate toward heat extremes.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological agencies as August 2026 approaches. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if present, could influence regional temperature patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 August, but final resolution depends on the Observatory publishing verified data in their Daily Extract—typically released within days of the observation date. Any unusual atmospheric systems or typhoon activity in the preceding weeks could shift expectations for that day's maximum temperature.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.