توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s temperature on 5 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily maximum, so the market is effectively pricing the city’s peak heat under official station rules rather than a citywide feel. The crowd at 0% for YES implies the current book is not expecting an extreme outlier; that matters because the resolution bands are narrow to one decimal place, and even a small shift around 31–32°C can change the winning bucket.

Historically, August in Hong Kong sits in the low 30s, with monthly guidance and market data both clustering around 30–32°C. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Hong Kong shows daily highs mostly in the high 20s to low 30s, including 30°C, 31°C and 32°C readings around the first week of the month[1]. Polymarket’s own crowd view is concentrated in the same corridor, with 30°C and 31°C each on 33%, 32°C on 22%, and only small residual odds above 33°C[2]. That kind of distribution suggests traders are treating 34°C-plus as a heatwave tail rather than the base case.

The key catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s day-of forecasts, any Very Hot Weather Warning, and whether thunderstorms or rain suppress the afternoon maximum. The Observatory’s regional weather pages and open temperature data are the main dependencies for how the day evolves, while recent local reporting shows Hong Kong can still spike into the mid-30s when heat builds and warnings are in force[9][12][13]. If convection or tropical moisture arrives, the ceiling drops quickly; if skies stay brighter and winds remain weak, the market can migrate up from 30–31°C towards 32–33°C before the final daily extract is published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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