توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's summer climate on 28 July will be shaped by the tail end of the southwest monsoon season, typically the hottest and most humid period of the year. Historical data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows that late July temperatures regularly exceed 32°C, with absolute daily maxima frequently reaching 34–36°C during this window. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available for settlement, or the market structure itself has not yet attracted substantive positioning.

Comparable years provide the baseline for calibration. In July 2023, Hong Kong recorded a daily maximum of 34.8°C on the 28th; in 2022, the figure was 33.9°C. The Observatory's historical dataset spanning decades shows that temperatures in the 33–35°C range dominate late-July outcomes, though occasional spikes to 36°C or above occur during particularly intense heat episodes. Traders should note that the resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure, which typically becomes available within days of the calendar date.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 July 2026, but actual resolution cannot occur until the Hong Kong Observatory finalises and publishes its daily extract data—a process that may extend several days beyond the event date. Traders should monitor the Observatory's climate data portal for publication schedules and any operational disruptions that might delay reporting. Atmospheric patterns in early July 2026 will be the primary signal; sustained high-pressure systems over southern China typically drive the highest readings in this period.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.