توقع: Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s temperature on 9 August is already priced as an almost locked-in outcome, with the market showing **92–93°F at 100%** and every other range at 0%. That sits comfortably inside the city’s early-August norm: the National Weather Service’s Houston/Hobby climate report lists a normal maximum of 94°F for the date, while the daily forecast for KHOU on 9 August called for **92°F** under mostly cloudy skies. [1][3][5]

The 0% price on the alternative ranges is best read against Houston’s summer pattern rather than a single forecast. August highs in the low 90s are routine at Hobby Airport, and even a hotter-than-expected spike would still need to break the market’s 92–93°F band to matter. Comparable forecast products for the day also pointed to highs around 92–93°F, reinforcing why the crowd has treated the range as near-certain. [1][4][5]

What matters now is the final Weather Underground daily observations entry for William P. Hobby Airport, because that table governs settlement, not the summary high/low box. The key trader watchpoints are any late-afternoon thunderstorms, cloud cover shifts, or an updated observation posted before the first datapoint for 10 August; after that cut-off, revisions are ignored. Weather Underground’s live history page and the National Weather Service forecast both showed no strong signal for a late jump beyond the prevailing low-90s setup. [1][3][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.