توقع: Highest temperature in Madrid on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning afternoon temperature spikes after 12:00 will not factor into the resolution.

August in Madrid typically sees daily highs between 32–36°C, with extremes occasionally exceeding 38°C during heat waves. The city experienced 40.5°C on 12 August 2022 and 39.6°C on 13 August 2023, establishing that mid-August can produce severe heat. However, such peaks remain outliers; most years see the month's maximum fall within the 34–37°C band. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold as highly unlikely, though without visibility on which range the market is testing, historical norms indicate mid-30s readings are routine for this date.

Spanish meteorological forecasts for summer 2026 remain unavailable at this stage, making near-term catalysts limited. Traders should monitor late July and early August 2026 weather patterns for Atlantic pressure systems or Saharan dust intrusions that could elevate temperatures. The airport station's location in the northern suburbs means it typically records slightly cooler readings than central Madrid; this geographic factor matters when comparing to historical city-centre records. Any significant heat wave affecting southern Europe in the weeks preceding mid-August would be the primary driver reshaping current odds.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Madrid on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.