توقع: Highest temperature in Madrid on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s temperature on 2 August was expected to top out in the mid-30s, with several forecasts converging on **35-36°C** and little sign of rain or disruptive cloud cover over the capital. Local Spanish coverage pointed to a mainly clear day, a maximum around **36°C**, and dry south-westerly winds, while another forecast pegged Madrid at **35.6°C** in the afternoon.[1][3][8]

That lines up with how August typically behaves in Madrid: hot, dry, and prone to sharp afternoon peaks rather than brief cool spells. Recent broader Spain reporting also showed the country already dealing with early-summer heat episodes touching **40°C** in Madrid during June, which helps explain why traders would treat a mid-30s reading as the base case rather than an extreme outcome.[12][19] In that context, a zero-per-cent crowd price looks hard to reconcile with the published forecasts unless the station-specific reading at Barajas materially undershoots the city forecast.

The main catalyst for traders is the actual airport observation on the day, because this market resolves to the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station by Wunderground. Forecast revisions are most likely to matter in the run-up to the afternoon peak, especially if cloud cover, wind shifts, or late convective development alter the maximum by a degree or two; the market page itself notes that late datapoints and revisions within the resolution window can affect settlement.[6] Weather advisories from AccuWeather also showed a **moderate high-temperature warning** for the Madrid area, with **36°C** as the expected maximum, reinforcing the idea that the crucial question is whether the airport lands in the **35°C**, **36°C**, or **37°C** band.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Madrid on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.