توقع: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s 31 July high will be set by the day’s hottest reading at Barajas airport, and the market is currently pricing in a very low outcome at 0% for the top bucket. That sits against a far hotter live setup: a local forecast story published this morning says Madrid could reach **38°C** today, while airport observations elsewhere in the city already show the low-to-mid 30s and a strong afternoon build-up remains possible.[4][18]

Historically, late July in Madrid is one of the hottest stretches of the year, with average daily highs around **33°C** and typical peaks often landing between the low and mid-30s rather than in the extreme buckets.[7][17] The city’s record heat is far above that baseline, but those very top readings are rare and usually require a sustained, exceptional heatwave; recent Madrid records have included **40.7°C** in 2019, 2021 and 2022, showing that the upper bins can clear on the right synoptic setup.[11][15]

The main catalysts are the day’s updated airport observations and any short-term forecast revisions before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, because the question is about the highest temperature recorded over the full day at the specified station rather than an evening close.[12] Traders should watch whether the heat builds fast enough early afternoon to challenge the upper bands, and whether the airport station lags or leads the wider Madrid forecast corridor, since even a small miss against the published 38°C forecast would keep the market anchored away from the highest outcomes.[4][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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