توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s temperature on 1 August will be judged by the day’s **highest recorded reading**, so the market is really about whether the station can produce an unusually warm afternoon rather than just a decent summer average. Munich’s August climate norms sit around **24°C–25°C** for daytime highs, with average August highs near **74°F–76°F (23°C–24°C)**, while daily highs in the month typically peak in the mid-20s Celsius and only occasionally push into the upper-20s or higher.[1][2][5][13]

That makes the current **1% YES** price look like a bet on an extreme rather than a routine warm spell. Historical August records cited for Munich range from about **38°C** at the top end in long-run climate datasets, with typical August record highs around **34°C–35°C** in recent station-based summaries, and the monthly maximum at Munich-Maxvorstadt averaged **32.1°C** across August in a 1982–2023 table.[3][7][8] In practice, a win for the top temperature band would likely need a strong heat plume, clear skies and a late-afternoon peak, rather than a standard summer day.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast for Munich Airport, the exact timing of any warmest-hour spike before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**, and whether any convective cloud or showers cap the daytime maximum.[1][13][15] Traders should watch the latest Munich forecasts from AccuWeather and comparable climate pages for any revision towards the upper end of the monthly range, because even a couple of degrees’ shift matters when the market is priced near zero.[1][5][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.