توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 20 August 2026 will be measured at Munich Airport Station and resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the eventual outcome to fall outside whatever temperature range this specific option represents—though the resolution mechanics indicate multiple bracketed ranges exist across the full market.

August temperatures at Munich Airport have historically ranged between 18°C and 32°C during the final third of the month, with daily highs clustering around 25–28°C in typical years. The 20th sits near the tail end of summer, when diurnal variation remains pronounced but extreme heat becomes less frequent than in July. Comparable August conditions from recent years show that readings above 30°C occur sporadically, whilst temperatures below 20°C are rare. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical resolution point that traders should verify against historical station data discrepancies.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting updates as August 2026 approaches, particularly from the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst), which publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks in advance. Any significant heat dome or Atlantic weather pattern shifts affecting central Europe in mid-August could materially shift expectations. The Munich Airport station's measurement protocols remain consistent year-on-year, so historical comparability is reliable; however, confirming the exact temperature bracket assigned to this particular option against the full market structure is essential before positioning.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Munich on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.