توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 10 August 2026 will determine this market's settlement. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, with the specific reading from the airport station serving as the definitive source. The current 3% implied probability suggests traders expect temperatures below the threshold range in question, reflecting either a cooler-than-typical August day or uncertainty about which temperature band will be exceeded.

New York's August temperatures typically range from 75–87°F, though heat waves regularly push readings into the low 90s. Historical August 10th data shows considerable variation: the city has recorded highs from 68°F to 92°F on this date across recent decades. The 2024 summer saw multiple days exceeding 90°F in early August, whilst cooler patterns in 2023 kept mid-August temperatures more moderate. These precedents suggest the market's low probability reflects either a specific high-temperature threshold that rarely materialises or expectations of below-average conditions for that particular date.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level pressure patterns that influence northeastern heat. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days in advance, will provide the most reliable guidance on whether anomalous heat or cooler air masses are likely. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia can amplify readings compared to surrounding areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating historical comparables.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.