توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s reported maximum for 15 August 2026 sits well below the kind of extreme that would force a higher bracket, with the National Weather Service climate report showing a 4 pm EDT maximum of 83°F and a daily high of 83°F at that point in the day.[5] That lines up with a broader August pattern in which New York’s monthly outlook had leaned warm but not wildly hot, while recent city coverage had alternated between heat advisories and sharper cooldowns as storms moved through the region.[10][8]

For traders, the key dependency is the final Daily Observations entry at LaGuardia, not the summary high-and-low panel, because the market settles off the table reading if the two differ. Late-day convective showers, sea-breeze effects, or a delayed update can still change the official maximum if the temperature nudges higher after the midday snapshot; the Weather Underground history page and NWS point forecast both show the station had already moved through the low-to-mid 80s range before the settlement window closed.[4][9] With crowd-implied YES at 0%, the market is effectively pricing in a maximum that stays inside the lower bands unless an unexpected late surge pushes the recorded daily high materially above the current 83°F mark.[5][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.