توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York’s late-summer setup has been fairly contained rather than extreme, with the National Weather Service showing LaGuardia around 68–78F in the final day before settlement and AccuWeather’s August range for the airport mostly topping out in the mid-80s, so the 0% yes price implies the market is already treating a high-end result as very unlikely. Recent NOAA climate data for LaGuardia also shows the prior day’s maximum at 84F, while the monthly climatology points to a typical August peak around the high 70s, which frames anything materially above 85F as an outlier rather than a base case.

The main catalysts are the official hourly readings from NOAA’s LaGuardia station through the settlement window and any short-lived afternoon warming before the noon UTC cut-off. Traders will be watching cloud cover, wind direction and speed, and dew point for signs of a brief spike rather than a sustained heat event; the latest airport reports showed mostly cloudy skies, westerly flow and temperatures in the upper 70s, which favours a modest range rather than a late surge. If the day stays on the cooler side of the recent forecast envelope, the highest reading should settle inside the lower bands the market is already discounting.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

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Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.