توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s 7 August reading is a **station-based weather event**, and the market will settle on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport rather than the broader “day high” figure some pages display. Weather Underground’s history page already shows a **current 82°F** daily history entry for New York City and the market text ties resolution specifically to the LaGuardia Airport station, which means traders should focus on the highest observation printed in the Daily Observations table, not the summary box.[4][13]

The current **0% YES** implies the crowd is treating the threshold as effectively unreachable from the realised outcome, but comparable August heat in New York can still push close to the low 90s when conditions support it. On the Polymarket market page, the dominant implied ranges sit around **90–91°F** and **88–89°F**, while AccuWeather’s August page had forecast values around the upper 80s to low 90s for the period, with 7 August shown near **84°F** in its daily grid, suggesting the market had been pricing in moderation rather than an extreme spike.[2][3]

The main catalysts are the **final station observations** and any late revision to the Weather Underground log before the settlement cut-off, because the market rules say revisions count only until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[2] Traders should watch for the LaGuardia station’s afternoon peak, any thunderstorm activity that could flatten the high, and whether the daily table updates after the event window closes; if the airport’s maximum prints below the low 90s, the 0% YES pricing may prove directionally correct, but a brief heat burst would still move the settled range quickly.[2][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.