توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s reading on 9 August will decide this market, and the crowd is effectively pricing a very low chance of an outright hot-day result, with 0% assigned to the YES side at present. That looks hard to reconcile with the live temperature environment already observed around New York: WeatherSpark’s latest report for KLGA on 9 August showed 88.0°F at 1:51 pm local time, with a 6-hour high of 89.1°F, while the National Weather Service’s nearby forecast page had a late-night update and AccuWeather’s August view placed the day around 90°F[1][2][13].

The historical frame is that midsummer New York often clusters near the upper 80s to low 90s, so the relevant question is not whether heat is possible, but whether LaGuardia can push far enough into the top bin before the market’s resolution cutoff. Polymarket’s own live pricing shows the crowd concentrated in 90–91°F and 92–93°F outcomes, which is consistent with a warm, but not extreme, August pattern rather than a breakout heat event[4]. Recent climate data for NYC also show nearby summer highs in the low 80s to low 90s, with 91.0°F recorded on 7 August in one monitor[8].

The main catalysts are straightforward: any late-afternoon surge at KLGA, and whether the final Weather Underground daily observations table posts a higher maximum than the day-high summary. Traders should watch the Weather Underground station page for LaGuardia, because that is the settlement source, and the market rules say later revisions can count until the first datapoint for the following date is published[4][6]. The NWS climate product and forecast updates are useful for context, but they do not control settlement[3][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.