توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s afternoon high on 26 July is the figure that matters here, not the feel on the streets elsewhere in New York City. The market is pricing a fairly tight summer distribution, with **84-85°F** the current leader at 41% and **82-83°F** close behind at 36%, which is consistent with a late-July peak that sits above the monthly average but short of extreme-heat territory.[1][3]

That 0% yes price looks aggressive only if one expects a large upside shock; comparable late-July New York forecasts typically cluster in the high 20s Celsius, and the city’s own weather summaries for that date show a warm but not exceptional day, with a sunny profile and a forecast maximum around 28°C.[2][3] For traders, the key question is whether the LaGuardia reading is lifted by a hotter-than-expected air mass or pulled down by coastal moderation, cloud cover, or a sea-breeze influence that can blunt airport highs even when other boroughs run hotter.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast runs and any heat advisories from local forecasters, because those can quickly shift the market between adjacent temperature bands.[4] In practical terms, watch the morning update cycle before the settlement window closes, as small changes of 1-2°F often decide whether the day lands in the 82-83°F, 84-85°F, or 86-87°F bucket at KLGA.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

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Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.