توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s maximum temperature on 4 August will be decided by the day’s highest observed reading at the station, so the key question is whether the afternoon heat peaks in the low 30s or pushes higher. The current crowd price of **0% YES** is hard to reconcile with normal August climatology, which puts Paris around the mid-20s Celsius on average, but the market is not asking for an average day — it settles on the single highest reading recorded before the window closes.[16][10]

The main historical reference point is this summer’s severe French heat pattern. Reuters reported in June that French weather officials were seeing temperatures hit record highs, and AP confirmed France recorded its hottest-ever day, while Paris itself reached 40.9°C during the event.[18][17][13] Against that backdrop, a 31–34°C outcome is plausible even without an extreme national headline, but a double-digit probability still implies traders see meaningful downside from cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, or a cooler airmass cutting the peak short of the highest bins.[3][4][16]

For traders, the most important catalysts are the live forecast updates for Paris-Le Bourget, any late-day thunderstorm risk, and whether the warmest hour falls inside the settlement window before 12:00 UTC. The market is already clustered around **31°C** and **32°C** in the crowd view, with 33–34°C still priced but less favoured, so a modest shift in model guidance or observed morning temperatures can move the distribution quickly.[3] If the day stays broadly in line with current August guidance from forecast sites, the higher bands remain dependent on a clean, sunny peak rather than an exceptional heat event.[1][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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