توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's August temperatures routinely exceed 30°C, with the metropolitan area frequently recording highs between 32–35°C during peak summer. The Incheon International Airport weather station, situated on the western coast, typically registers slightly cooler readings than central Seoul due to maritime influence, though the differential rarely exceeds 1–2°C. August 13 falls within the height of Korea's summer monsoon season, when afternoon temperatures are most volatile and dependent on cloud cover and wind patterns from the Yellow Sea.

Historical data from Incheon shows August daily maxima have ranged from 26°C in unusually cool years to 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature threshold to fall well below typical August conditions, or that the resolution methodology—specifically the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—introduces sufficient uncertainty to deter positions. Weather Underground's station-level data occasionally diverges from official Korean Meteorological Administration readings, a discrepancy that could affect settlement interpretation.

The primary variable for August 13, 2026 remains the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the region during early-to-mid August. Korean weather forecasts typically become reliable only 7–10 days before the target date. Traders should monitor late-July atmospheric patterns and any tropical storm development in the Western Pacific, as these will determine whether Incheon experiences typical summer heat or cooler, cloudier conditions.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.