توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon’s high temperature on 9 August will be judged by the Weather Underground Daily Observations table, so the trade is really about whether the airport gets into the mid-30s Celsius rather than the broader Seoul headline number. Current forecasts cluster around **34–35°C** for the Seoul/Incheon area, with the Korea Meteorological Administration putting today’s regional maximum at **34–35°C** and AccuWeather showing **93°F (34°C)** for Seoul, alongside heat warnings and only spotty afternoon showers.[10][1][12]

The 0% yes price looks easiest to read as a market that is leaning hard towards a non-extreme outcome on the exact station read-out, but comparable August setups in Seoul often produce highs in the low-to-mid 30s rather than much higher spikes. Time and Date’s hourly forecast has temperatures around **87–89°F** late morning to midday with overcast skies and passing showers, while SBS reported Seoul highs near **34°C** and scattered afternoon showers in a recent hot spell, which is the kind of pattern that can cap the day’s maximum if cloud and rain arrive early enough.[9][3] For settlement, the key question is not whether Seoul feels hot, but whether Incheon’s official observed peak lands inside the market’s temperature band.

Traders should watch the morning-to-afternoon evolution at Incheon, especially any last-minute changes in shower timing, cloud cover, or sea-breeze effects that can suppress the peak after late morning. The most important dependencies are the KMA short-range forecast and any live Weather Underground observation updates, because the market settles on the Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low display.[10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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