توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with the monsoon season typically in full effect by 28 July. Historical records from Incheon International Airport—the official measurement station for this market—show daily highs averaging 29–31°C during this period, though extremes have reached 34–35°C in notably hot years. The 0% probability assigned to higher temperature brackets suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-average pattern or uncertainty about which specific range will resolve.

Comparable July conditions from recent years provide the baseline for calibration. In 2023, Seoul recorded a peak of 32.4°C on 28 July; in 2022, the same date saw 30.1°C. The variance across years reflects how monsoon intensity and timing shift the thermal envelope substantially. Traders should note that Incheon Airport, located west of central Seoul, often records slightly lower temperatures than the city centre due to maritime influence, which historically moderates afternoon peaks by 1–2°C.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 28 July 2026, meaning the highest temperature must be recorded and published on Wunderground by that point. Weather forecasts issued in early July 2026 will be the primary catalyst for position adjustments, particularly any alerts regarding heat domes or extended high-pressure systems over the Korean peninsula. Monsoon progression patterns announced by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks prior should also influence trader expectations around humidity and cloud cover, both of which suppress daytime maxima.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.