توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature on 10 August will be judged on the highest reading at Pudong International Airport, and the market currently sits at **0% YES**, which is consistent with a very narrow upside case rather than any established hot spell. Recent Shanghai weather histories show that mid-August highs are often in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with 10 August 2025 reaching around **35.5°C** in one historical summary and other August 2026 snapshots showing highs in the **low 30s** rather than extreme outliers[14][15][16].

For traders, the key catalyst is whether the airport station actually breaks into the top band used by the market’s settlement range, not whether the city feels hotter elsewhere. Weather Underground’s Shanghai history page shows the daily table as the decisive source, and the live outlook from other weather services points to cloudy, wet conditions with high humidity and substantial rain risk, which can cap daytime peaks even when it remains muggy[6][15]. That matters because the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, so any late-morning warming before midday is what will count, while afternoon heat elsewhere in the city will not affect resolution[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.