توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather in mid-August typically sits within the hot and humid range characteristic of the city's summer monsoon season. Historical August temperatures at Pudong International Airport have regularly exceeded 35°C, with peak daily highs frequently reaching 36–38°C during the middle of the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature bands available in this market's resolution structure, or the specific thresholds offered do not align with the climatological norm for this date.

August 15th falls during Shanghai's most consistently warm period, when Pacific subtropical high-pressure systems dominate the region and afternoon temperatures rarely dip below the mid-30s Celsius. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Pudong station has historically recorded readings that align closely with official China Meteorological Administration data, though occasional sensor variations can occur. The distinction between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section matters operationally; traders should verify which specific measurement protocol Weather Underground applies to its Pudong station feed, as this determines settlement accuracy.

Traders monitoring this market should track Shanghai's seasonal weather patterns through July 2026 and early August, as any unusual atmospheric conditions—tropical cyclone activity, monsoon shifts, or heat dome persistence—could shift temperatures materially. Current meteorological forecasting suggests August 2026 will follow typical patterns, but long-range outlooks remain subject to revision as the date approaches. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on August 15th, meaning traders have only the morning observation window to assess final conditions.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.