توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's temperature range will be captured before resolution.

August in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-August temperatures at Pudong station have ranged from 29°C on cooler days to 38°C during particularly intense heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold being wagered or expect conditions substantially below seasonal norms. Comparable August 17th readings from 2015–2024 provide the most relevant benchmark: only two instances saw highs below 30°C, whilst four years recorded temperatures exceeding 35°C.

Traders should monitor extended-range weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, as summer monsoon patterns and potential typhoon activity in late July can significantly alter early-August conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and timing directly influence Shanghai's temperature trajectory in mid-August. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August could suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation, though such systems typically bring brief cooling rather than sustained cool spells. Current climate oscillations and sea surface temperature anomalies in the Western Pacific warrant tracking through July 2026.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.