توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather in mid-August sits firmly within the city's summer monsoon season, when daily highs routinely exceed 32°C. The settlement window closes at noon on 19 August 2026, meaning the resolution will capture the peak temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport's weather station during that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either dismissing extreme heat scenarios or the market has attracted minimal participation on this particular outcome band.

Historical August data from Shanghai shows consistent patterns: the past decade's mid-August highs have ranged between 31–35°C, with occasional spikes to 36–37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city experienced a 40.9°C reading in July 2022, though August peaks typically remain slightly lower. These precedents establish the baseline against which any August 19 outcome should be evaluated. Humidity levels compound the thermal stress, regularly pushing perceived temperatures several degrees higher than recorded figures.

The specific resolution methodology—drawing from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—matters operationally. Discrepancies between intraday peak readings and published day-high summaries occasionally occur, so traders should verify the exact station data source before settlement. Broader atmospheric patterns for summer 2026 remain unknowable at present, though La Niña or El Niño conditions could influence regional temperature regimes. The current zero probability likely reflects low market depth rather than genuine confidence that temperatures will fall outside all available range brackets.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.