توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s warmth in early August is usually already in the summer peak, with typical daily highs around 31–32°C and average August highs in the mid-30s on some historical datasets. WeatherSpark puts Shanghai’s August daily highs mostly in the low-to-mid 30s Fahrenheit-equivalent pattern, while ClimateYearbook shows an average August high of 35.4°C in 2024, and multiple climate summaries place the month’s record highs up to 40–41°C in extreme years.[1][2][6]

That context makes a 0% “yes” price look detached from the climate baseline rather than from a normal-shape distribution: Shanghai’s August heat can reach well into the mid-30s Celsius, and the city has recently produced record August heat, including 35.8°C downtown on 31 August 2025 and a month-long run of high-temperature days. For this market, the relevant question is not whether August can get hot, but whether Pudong Airport’s *single-day maximum* on 2 August 2026 lands in the specific band used for settlement.[3][5][6]

The main trader watchpoints are the local forecast evolution, any typhoon-driven cloud and rain suppression, and whether nighttime warmth keeps the day’s maximum elevated. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook has Shanghai’s daily highs running roughly 82° to 92°F, which would leave several settlement bands in play if sustained, but that forecast can move materially with changes in the East China Sea typhoon track and monsoon moisture.[11][15][16] The market settles on the Wunderground history page for Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, so the final print depends on that station’s observed maximum rather than a citywide average.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.