توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s maximum on 9 August will be driven by a familiar late-summer mix of heat, humidity and rain risk, with the market settling on the **highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station** rather than the headline daily high. The broad forecast range for the day is clustered in the high 20s to mid 30s Celsius depending on source: AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Shanghai daily highs between **84°F and 94°F** for the month, while several day-specific forecasts for 9 August point to a cooler, wetter outcome, including **29°C** on weather.com.cn and **28°C** on PredictWind[1][12][4].

That leaves the current **0% yes** price looking more like a function of the market not yet reflecting the eventual station observation than a meaningful read on climatology. Comparable August Shanghai readings often sit in the low 30s Celsius, but the city is also prone to sharp cloud, rain and thunderstorm interference that can cap the day’s top figure well below the monthly average. Weather2Travel pegs typical August daytime maxima around **31°C**, and WeatherSpark notes daily highs generally sit near **90°F to 85°F** through the month, rarely breaking **96°F**[14][18].

The key catalyst is the evolution of the short-range forecast between now and settlement, especially the timing and intensity of rainfall around Pudong. AccuWeather currently shows **97% precipitation probability** for 9 August, with wind and periods of rain expected, while worldweatheronline and weather.com.cn both point to heavy rain and strong easterly or north-easterly flow[5][11][12]. For this market, the important dependency is not whether Shanghai feels hot overall, but whether breaks in cloud cover allow a brief spike at Pudong before rain and maritime air suppress the station high.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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