توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s late-July heat is usually well established, and the bar for this market is the peak reading at Pudong airport on 31 July rather than the citywide average. Historical July data for Shanghai cluster around the low 30s Celsius, with monthly highs commonly near 31-33°C and individual late-July days often reaching the mid-30s, while WeatherSpark describes 31 July as one of the clearest days of the month, which can help afternoon heating.[1][6][18] Comparable end-of-July readings in recent years have been firmly summer-like: QWeather shows Shanghai highs of 31°C to 37°C on 31 July across 2020-2024, including 37°C in 2024.[2] That backdrop makes a 0% YES price look detached from the seasonal profile unless conditions are unusually cool or cloudy.

For traders, the key catalysts are the local forecast, cloud cover, and whether a heat dome or monsoonal rain band develops over the Yangtze Delta, because those factors move the day’s maximum more than the date itself.[8][10][18] The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on the day, so the exact airport reading matters more than broader Shanghai reports.[Market description] The main watchlist is the evolution of afternoon convection and rainfall timing, since even a hot morning can fail to produce the final high if showers or thicker cloud arrive early; by contrast, a clear, humid afternoon can push the airport station into the mid-30s, as recent Shanghai July history has shown.[2][3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.