توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will record its highest temperature on 18 August 2026, measured at Bao'an International Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. August is Shenzhen's hottest month, with mean daily highs typically between 32–34°C, though peak afternoon readings frequently exceed 35°C during the summer monsoon season. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the morning and early afternoon period when temperatures are still rising.

Historical August data from Shenzhen shows daily maxima regularly breach 36–37°C, with occasional readings touching 38°C or higher during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August day or uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve. Comparable August 18 readings from prior years would anchor expectations, though year-to-year variation in monsoon intensity and urban heat effects creates meaningful variance. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its summary section is material; traders must verify which source governs settlement before committing capital.

Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during mid-August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems would drive readings upward. The Asian summer monsoon's strength in early-to-mid August typically delivers humid, warm conditions favourable to high maxima. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from late July onwards and track any typhoon warnings that might affect the Pearl River Delta region in the fortnight before settlement.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.