توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s hottest readings in August usually come from a narrow band around the low-30s Celsius, but that sits inside a wet, typhoon-prone month rather than a dry heatwave pattern. August climatology for the city points to average highs around 31–32°C, with frequent rain and humidity, while day-by-day August forecasts in recent guidance cluster around 31–33°C rather than extreme heat[1][3][16][19][20]. That makes a 0% crowd price on the top end look detached from the local baseline: the market is not asking whether Shenzhen can be warm, but whether the airport station will print a clear breakout above the familiar August range[1][6].

Comparable cases suggest traders should read this as a weather-range market rather than a binary sunshine call. Recent Shenzhen outlooks have shown highs of about 31°C to 32°C on 5 August, with nearby days reaching 33°C in some guides and 84°F to 100°F on broader forecasts, which translates to roughly 29°C to 38°C but includes values for the wider city rather than the airport station itself[1][2][7][8][11]. The resolution source is the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station on Wunderground, so the key line for traders is the station’s realised maximum, not the headline city forecast[11].

The main catalysts are the late-shifting tropical weather pattern and any updated short-range forecast from the airport station. Heavy August rainfall, high humidity and the possibility of showers or thunderstorms can cap daytime maxima, but a clear, dry spell or forecast upgrade closer to the settlement window can quickly lift the top-end outcomes[1][18][19][20]. Traders should watch for changes in airport-specific forecasts, as station location and timing matter: the market settles on the highest temperature recorded before 12:00 UTC, so a late-morning warm-up, cloud break, or rain band passing through can decide the final range[10][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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