توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is set for another very warm August day, with the market settling on the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport rather than the headline high in the summary panel. Seasonal norms point to a city that is usually around 32°C by day in August, with humidity and frequent showers keeping the distribution wide rather than tightly clustered.[5][7][10]

That matters because a 0% YES price can still sit in a range where mid-30s readings are plausible. Weather services currently show forecasts around 32°C with patchy rain possible,[8] while a Hong Kong Observatory forecast for Shenzhen points to 26-34°C and fine to cloudy conditions.[14] More importantly, Shenzhen’s own weather bureau issued a yellow high-temperature warning on 6 August, saying the city would be under hot, sunny conditions with occasional brief thunderstorms from 6-10 August and that the maximum could reach 36°C or above.[13]

For traders, the key catalysts are the latest airport observations and any updated local warnings, not the broader monthly climate averages. The market resolves from the daily observations table on Weather Underground, so the final printed maximum at the airport station is what matters if afternoon heating peaks after early cloud or shower cover clears. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, any late-morning to early-afternoon spike in the observation feed is the main line-moving variable, especially if the high-temperature warning remains in force.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.