توقع: Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s temperature at Changi Airport is usually locked into a narrow band in August, which is why the market is effectively deciding between a handful of Celsius outcomes rather than a wide spread. Long-run August averages cluster around 31–32°C, with daily highs commonly near 31°C and rare excursions much above that, while forecast services for this month show highs mostly in the 30–31°C range and only brief spikes to 33–34°C in some outlooks.[1][4][18][9] That backdrop helps explain why a 0% crowd-implied price on the top bucket can still be fragile if the day trends slightly hotter than consensus or if the market’s settlement band is set above the most common peak readings.

For traders, the key catalyst is whether Singapore gets enough sunshine and suppressed rainfall early in the day to allow the airport station to reach its usual afternoon maximum, or whether cloud cover and convective showers cap the high below the typical August ceiling.[3][6][19] The NEA’s daily forecast updates and the Changi Airport observation feed matter most because the market resolves off the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport Station on the day, not citywide conditions.[9] By 09:00 UTC, Singapore is already deep into the local day, so the main risk now is whether the afternoon heating window produces a clean run to the upper 20s or low 30s, or whether showers trim the peak before the final reading is set.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.