توقع: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is in the middle of a late-July heat spell, with the Central Weather Administration issuing an orange heat advisory after daytime temperatures topped 36°C for a third straight day on Friday. That matters for this market because the settlement is based on the single highest temperature recorded at the station during the day, not the average or the daytime high at a particular hour.[1]

The current 0% yes price sits well below the city’s established late-summer profile. July is normally Taipei’s hottest month, with average highs around 33–34°C and some historical July readings reaching 38°C or even higher in the city’s broader records, while the latest daily forecast data still shows upper-80s to around 90°F for the end of the month.[4][6][10] In other words, a high in the low-to-mid 30s would be ordinary, but a move into the upper 30s is squarely within Taipei’s historical range.[11][19]

The main catalyst is whether the heat advisory persists or intensifies through the afternoon, when Taipei typically posts its day’s peak. Traders should watch CWA updates, local station observations, and any cloud cover or thunderstorm development that could cap the maximum before the settlement window closes on the day.[1][6] Earlier official readings on the same day already showed sustained heat above 36°C, which keeps the market sensitive to another small upward move rather than a dramatic weather regime change.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.