توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s afternoon high on 1 August will be set by how quickly the city heats under summer sunshine and whether the sea breeze or cloud cover blunts the climb. Tokyo’s August climate is already very warm: average highs are around 31°C, with daytime temperatures often exceeding 33°C and occasional peaks into the mid-30s or higher.[13][15]

That is why the crowd’s **0% YES** implies an extreme outcome is being priced as virtually impossible, rather than a mild warm day. Historical Tokyo data show August is the hottest part of the year, with the long-run monthly average daily maximum in the mid-30s in recent years and an all-time city record of 37.3°C in August 1994, so the relevant question is not whether Tokyo can heat up, but whether Haneda can reach the top end of its August range on this specific day.[2][11] Comparable August readings have often landed around 34–35°C rather than at record levels, which helps explain why outcomes above the low-to-mid 30s can still be fragile even in peak summer.[4][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning forecast updates, the timing of any official heat advisories, and the day’s cloud, rain and wind profile, because these can shift the maximum by several degrees. The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station during the full day in question, using Wunderground’s historical daily data for RJTT, so intraday revisions or late-afternoon spikes matter until the final day’s reading is locked in.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.