توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by that primary source rather than the Day High & Low summary figures. August in Tokyo typically sees peak summer heat, with historical daily highs averaging 32–34°C during mid-August, though extreme heat events pushing above 37°C have occurred with increasing frequency over the past decade.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range being offered or expect conditions substantially cooler than seasonal norms. August 2026 falls within a period where Japan's meteorological patterns remain subject to Pacific typhoon activity and upper-atmospheric pressure systems; early August conditions often presage shifts in late-month weather. The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts, typically released in late June, will provide the first institutional guidance on whether 2026's August sits within normal parameters or deviates meaningfully.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone development in the Western Pacific during late July and early August, as typhoon proximity or remnant moisture can suppress daytime temperatures substantially. Conversely, high-pressure systems anchored over the region drive extreme heat. Historical data from Haneda Airport—Japan's primary weather observation point for Tokyo—shows measurable year-to-year variance; comparing 13 August temperatures from 2015–2025 will establish whether the current market odds reflect genuine uncertainty about the range boundaries or simply thin liquidity in a niche weather contract.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.