توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's temperature range will be captured before resolution.

August in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from Haneda shows that mid-August temperatures have ranged from 28°C in cooler years to 37°C during intense summer pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature threshold—likely set at an extreme upper bound—to be exceeded only in rare circumstances. Comparable August dates at Haneda reveal that temperatures above 38°C occur roughly once per decade, making very high thresholds unlikely to resolve affirmatively in any given year.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for seasonal patterns. Pacific typhoon activity and the position of the Tibetan High pressure system will determine whether anomalous heat develops. Recent summers have shown increased variability; the 2023 Tokyo summer saw multiple days exceeding 35°C, whilst 2024 was more moderate. Any tropical cyclone tracking near the region in mid-August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst a stalled high-pressure dome would elevate them substantially.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.